Since the start of the year the claiming races have been disappointing, with the lack of runners making it very difficult to find suitable betting opportunities.Trying to find any value in four and five runner races is never easy .
Trainers seem reluctant to run horses in the claiming races this year on All Weather, with nearly every race having under 6 runners.The main two reasons being the bad weather and very low prize money in claiming races.
Having specialized in the claiming races since December 2011 ,the profits have been satisfactory with £1524 profit from 68 bets and over 25% return on investment .However the first two months this year have been very poor with £617 / 6.17 pts loss.
I have to admit the start of the year has been bit of struggle,the bets haven't performed up to my normal standard ,though with there being only five bets this year the main problem has been finding any decent betting opportunities in the claimers .
I have decided to make few changes to the blog before the start of the turf season in April.Hopefully in the mean time we can turn things around with few winners.
Moving onto Wednesday we have three claiming races ,though all three races look uncompetitive races with small fields .
The first claiming race the 10 furlong claiming stakes at Lingfield at 1.30 .Just three runners here for three year old claimer .Strictly on official handicap ratings this looks tight little race .
ITS ONLY BUSINESS has been in great form winning 4 of last 5 starts and is unbeaten in claiming company 3 out 3 .Looks the one to beat if staying this longer trip.However backing Odds on shots that are unproven over the trip is not recommended .
The second claiming race the 5 furlong claiming stakes at 2.00 Lingfield with five runners declared . HARMOODY has been in good form recently winning twice at Wolverhampton and only just touched off in class 4 handicap over course & distance last time .Should be difficult to beat returning to claiming company .Odds around 11-8 look fair in this little field .
Over at Kempton we have 7 furlong claimer with 6 runners at 6.30 .HURRICANE SPIRIT has great record in claiming company winning 4 out 5 ,and looks well treated at the weights.The only concern is this shorter trip not won over 7 furlongs since December 2006.However is not short of pace and should cope with drop back in trip .Odds around 5-6 are about right in weak race .
No bets for the blog today as I don't recommend anything under 5-2 ,though both HARMOODY & HURRICANE SPIRIT look to have very solid chances.
Hi Jerry,
ReplyDeleteIt has been a difficult time this aw season. I guess that is the problem of specialising within the claiming races although, like yourself, I have been surprised how few races have been run and numbers of runners have been terrible. I'm sure the Flat season will see many more opportunities. Looking forward to reading about your new approach. Always here if needed.
Best wishes,
Jason
Hi Jason,
ReplyDeleteAppreciate the feedback.
Yeah when you specialize in certain types of races,there's never going to be large number of bets,though five bets in 8 weeks is just not enough in my opinion.
I will have to make some changes to the blog before the flat turf starts.I have some interesting ideas .hopefully these changes will be profitable and make the blog a lot more interesting read .
All the best
Jerry
Hi Jerry , have you thought about maybe trying to focus on a particular race type to supplement your claimers , ie : 5/6f sprints only, you could track and follow the sprinters thru their form over the year , get some good speed ratings and course data and you would be gteed at least 2-3 races a day to look at?..just an idea , whatever you do i hope it works out, keep at it mate.
DeleteThanks for comment SnipeS
ReplyDeleteYeah I think with the All Weather racing it pays to specialize in certain types race .I have got few ideas and will be making changes to the blog in March.
Cheers
Jerry